宏观经济学

PREFACE
PARTONE-INTRODUCTION1
CHAPTERl-ATOUROFTHEWORLDl
1-1WHATISMACROECONOMICS?1
TheSimplificationsofMacroeconomics
1·WhyMacroeconomistsSometimes
Disagree3
1-2LOOKINGATTHEWORLD4
TheUnitedStates4·TheEuropean
Union8·Japan11
1-3LOOKINGAHEAD16
CHAPTER2-ATOUROFTHEBOOK19
2-1AGGREGATEOUTPUT19
GDRValueAdded,andIncome20·
NominalandRealGDP22
2-2THEOTHERmAJORMACROECoNOMIC
VARIABLES26
TheUnemploymentRate26·The
InflationRate29·BudgetDeficitsand
TradeDeficits34
2-3AROADmAP34
PARTTWO-THEBASICS40
CHAPTER3-THEGOODSMARKET40
3-1THECOMPOSITIONOFGDP40
3-2THEDETERMINATIONOFDEMAND43
Consumption(C)44·Investment(1)
45·GovernmentSpending(G)46
3-3TIlEDETERMINATIONOF
EQUILIBRIUMOUTPUT46
TheAlgebra47·AGraph48·In
Words50
3-4INVESTMENTEQUALSSAVING:AN
ALTERNATIVEWAYOFTHINKINGABOUT
GOODS-MARKETEQUILIBRIUM52
3-5THEPARADOXOFSAVING54
3-6ISTHEGOVERNMENTREALLY
OMNIPOTENT?AWARNING55
CHAPTER4-THEGOODSMARKET:
DYNAMICS58
4-1PRODUCTION,SALES,AND
INVENTORYINVESTMENT58
DividingTime59·ProductionandSales
59·EquilibriumintheGoodsMarket
Revisited60·TheDynamicEffectsof
anIncreaseinGovernmentSpending61
·UsingaGraph63
*4-2GOINGEMPIRICAL65
EstimatingtheMarginalPropensityto
Consume65·AllowingforLags68·
CorrelationVersusCausality69
*4-3SIMULATINGTHEESTiMATED
MODEL72
4-4CONCLUSIONS
CHAPTER5-FINANCIALMARKETS77
5-1MONEYVERSUSBONDS77
TheBasicChoice79·TheDemandfor
Money80·TheDemandforBonds81
·MoneyDemandandtheInterestRate:
TheEvidence82
5-2THEDETERMINATIONOFTIlE
INTERESTRATE:I84
MoneyDemand,MoneySupply,andthe
EquilibriumInterestRate85·Monetary
PolicyandOpenMarketOperations87·
MonetaryPolicyandtheInterestRate90
*5-3THEDETERMINATIONOFTHE
INTERESTRATE:Il90
TheRoleofBanks90·TheDetermination
oftheMoneySupply91·TheEffectsof
anOpenMarketOperation95·
Conclusions:MoneyDemandandMoney
Supply97
CHAPTER6-GOODSANDFINANCIAL
MARKETS:THEIS-LM100
6-lTHEGOODSMARKETANDTHEIS
RELATION101
Investment,Sales,andtheInterestRate
101·TheISCurve102·ShiftsintheIS
Curve105
6-2FINANCIALMARKETSANDTHELM
RELATION106
RealMoney,RealIncome,andtheInterest
Rate106·TheLMCurve107·Shiftsin
theLMCurve108
6-3THE/S-LMMODEL:EXERCISES109
FiscalPolicy,Activity,andtheInterestRate
111·MonetaryPolicy,Activity,andthe
InterestRate114·UsingaPolicyMix116
6-4ADDINGDYNAMICS119
6-5DOESTHEIS-LMMODELACTUALLY
CAPTUREWHATHAPPENSINTHE
ECONOMY?121
PARTTHREE-EXPECTATIONS127
CHAPTER?-EXPECTATIONS:THEBASIC
TooLS127
7-1NOMINALVERSUSREALINTEREST
RATES128
ComputingtheRealInterestRate130·
NominalandRealInterestRatesinthe
UnitedStatesSince1978131
7-2EXPECTEDPRESENTDISCOUNTED
VALUES133
ComputingExpectedPresentDiscounted
Values134·Applications136·Nominal
VersusRealInterestRates,andPresent
Values138
7-3NOMINALANDREALINTEREST
RATES,ANDTHEIS-LMMODEL139
APPENDIX:DERIVINGTHEPRESENT
DISCOUNTEDVALUEUSINGREALOR
NOMINALINTERESTRATES143
CHAPTER8-EXPECTATIONS,
CONSUMPTION,ANDINVESTMENT145
8-1CONSUMPTION145
TheVeryForesightedConsumer146·An
Example147·TowardaMoreRealistic
Description148·PuttingThings
Together:CurrentIncome,Expectations,
andConsumption·151
8-2INVESTMENT152
InvestmentandExpectationsofProfit152
·AConvenientSpecialCase154·
CurrentVersusExpectedProfit155·
ProfitandSales157
8-3THEVOLATILITYOFCONSUMPTION
ANDINVESTMENT159
APPENDIX:DERIVATIONOFTHEEXPECTED
PRESENTVALUEOFPROFITSWHEN
FUTUREPROFITSANDINTEREST
RATESAREEXPECTEDTOBETHE
SAMEASTODAY163
CHAPTER9-FINANCIAL/MARKETSAND
EXPECTATIONS164
9-1BONDPRICESANDTHEYIELDCURVE165
BondPricesasPresentValues167·
ArbitrageandBondPrices168·From
BondPricestoBondYields169·The
YieldCurveandEconomicActivity171
9-2THESTOCKMARKETAND
MOVEMENTSINSTOCKPRICES174
StockPricesasPresentValues175·The
StockMarketandEconomicActivity177
9-3BUBBLES,FADS,ANDSTOCKPRICES18C
APPENDIX:ARBITRAGEANDSTOCKPRICES
185
CHAPTER10-EXPECTATIONS,POLICY,
ANDOUTPUT187
10-1EXPECTATIONSANDDECISIONS:
TAKINGSTOCK187
ExpectationsandtheISRelation187·
TheLMRelationRevisited190
10-2AFIRSTEXERCISE:MONETARY
POLICY,EXPECTATIONS,ANDOUTPUT
191
10-3DEFICITREDUCTION,EXPECTATIONS,
ANDECONOMICACTIVITY194
10-4TIlECLINTONDEFICITREDUCTION
PACKAGE198
TheDesignofaProgram199·The
Outcome200
10-5ONTOTHEOPENECONOMY203
PARTFOUR-OPENNESS205
CHAPTER11-OPENNESSINGOODSAND
FINANCIALMARKETS205
11-1OPENNESSINGOODSMARKETS206
NominalExchangeRates209·Real
ExchangeRates212
11-2OPENNESS1NFINANCIALMARKETS
217
TheBalanceofPayments217·The
ChoiceBetweenDomesticandForeign
Assets220
11-3CONCLUSIONSANDALOOKAHEAD
224
CHAPTER12-THEGOODSMARKETINAN
OPENECONOMY227
12-1THEISRELATIONINTHEOPEN
ECONOMY228
TheDemandforDomesticGoods228·
TheDeterminantsoftheDemandfor
DomesticGoods228
12-2EQUILIBRIUMOUTPUTANDTHE
TRADEBALANCE231
12-3INCREASESINDEMAND,DOMESTIC
ORFOREIGN232
IncreasesinG6vernmentSpending233·
IncreasesinForeignDemand236·
GamesThatCountriesPlay237
12-4DEPRECIATION,THETRADEBALANCE,
ANDOUTPUT259
DepreciationandtheTradeBalance:The
Marshall-LernerCondition240·The
EffectsofaDepreciation241·
CombiningExchange-RateandFiscal
Policies241
12-5LOOKINGATDYNA,MICS:THE
J-CURVE243
12-6SAVING,INVESTMENT,ANDTRADE
DEFICITS245
APPENDIX:DERIVATIONOFTHEMARSHAl.L-
LERNERCONDITION248
CHAPTER1,3-OUTPUT,THEINTEREST
RATE,ANDTHEEXCHANGERATE250
13-1EQUILIBRIUMINTHEGOODSMARKET
251
13-2EQUILIBRIUMINFINANCIAL
MARKETS252
MoneyVersusBonds252·Domestic
BondsVersusForeignBonds253
13-3PUTTINGGOODSANDFINANCIAL
MARKETSTOGETHER255
13-4THEEFFECTSOFPOLICYINANOPEN
ECONOMY257
TheEffectsofFiscalPolicyinanOpen
Economy257·TheEffectsofMonetary
PolicyinanOpenEconomy258
*13-5FIXEDEXCHANGERATES261
Pegs,CrawlingPegs,Bands,andtheEMS
262·PeggingtheExchangeRate,and
MonetaryControl263·FiscalPolicy
UnderFixedExchangeRates264
APPENDIX:FIXEDEXCHANGERATES,
INTERESTRATES,ANDCAPITAL
MOBILITY269
*CHAPTER14-EXPECTATIONS,
EXCHANGE-RATEMOVEMENTS,AND
EXCHANGE-RATECRISES272
14-1THEDETERMINANTSOFTHEREAL
EXCHANGERATE275
RealInterestRatesandtheRealExchange
Rate,273·Long-TermRealInterestRates
andtheRealExchangeRate275·The
RealExchangeRate,Trade,andInterest
RateDifferentials276
14-2THEDANCEOFTHEDOLLARINTHE
1980S277
14-5THEAPPRECIATIONOFTHEYENIN
THE19903279
14-4EXCHANGERATES,MONETARY
POLICY,ANDNEWS281
MonetaryPolicy,InterestRates,and
ExchangeRates281·Policyand
Expectations283
14-5FIXEDEXCHANGERATESAND
EXCHANGE-RATECRISES284
CrisesintheEuropeanMonetarySystem
286
APPENDIX:FROMNOMINALTOREAL
INTERESTPARITY290
PARTFIVE-THESUPPLYSIDE293
CHAPTER15-THELABORMARKET293
15-1ATOUROFTHELABORMARKET294
TheLargeFlowsofWorkers294·
DifferencesAcrossWorkers297·
MovementsinUnemployment298
15-2WAGEDETERMINATION302
Bargaining303·EfficiencyWages303·
WagesandUnemployment305
15-3PRICEDETERMINATION306
15-4THENATURALRATEOF
UNEMPLOYMENT307
TheWage-SettingRelation308·The
Price-SettingRelation309·Equilibrium
RealWages,Employment,and
Unemployment309·From
UnemploymenttoOutput310
15-5WHEREWEGOFROMHERE511
APPENDIX:WAGE-ANDPRICE-SETTING
RELATIONSVERSUSLABORSUPPLY
ANDLABORDEMAND313
CHAPTER16-PUTTINGALLMARIKETS
TOGETHER315
16-1AGGREGATESUPPLY316
TheDerivationoftheAggregateSupply
Relation316·TheAggregateSupply
RelationandtheNaturalLevelofOutput
317
16-2AGGREGATEDEMAND318
16-3MOVEMENTSINOUTPUTANDPRICES
320
16-4THEEFFECTSOFAMONETARY
EXPANSION323
TheDynamicsofAdjustment323·
LookingBehindtheScene324·The
NeutralityofMoney325
16-5ADECREASEINTHEBUDGETDEFICIT
327
TheBudgetDeficit,Output,andthe
InterestRate328·BudgetDeficits,
Output,andInvestment330
16-6MOVEMENTSINTHEPRICEOFOIL531
EffectsontheNaturalRateof
Unemployment332·TheDynamicsof
Adjustment333
16-7CONCLUSIONS335
TheShortRunVersustheLongRun335
·ShocksandPropagationMechanisms
336·Output,Unemployment,and
Inflation336
CHAPTER17-THEPHILLIPSCURVE339
17-1INFLATION,EXPECTEDINFLATION,
ANDUNEMPLOYMENT341
17-2THEPHILLIPSCURVE342
TheEarlyIncarnation342·Mutations
342·BacktotheNaturalRateof
Unemployment346
17-3ASUMMARYANDMANYWARNINGS
349
TheInflationProcessandthePhillipsCurve
349·DifferencesintheNaturalRate
AcrossCountries351·Variationsinthe
NaturalRateoverTime352·TheLimits
ofOurUnderstanding354
APPENDIX:FROMTIIEAGGREGATESUPPLY
RELATIONTOTHEPHILLIPSCURVE
357
CHAPTER18-[NFLATION,DISINFLATION,
ANDUNEMPLOYMEN'F559
18-1INFLATION,OUTPUT,AND
UNEMPLOYMENT559
ThePhillipsCurve:Unemploymentandthe
ChangeinInflation360·Okun'sLaw:
OutputGrowthandChangesin
Unemployment360·TheAggregate
DemandRelation:OutputGrowth,Money
Growth,andInflation363
18-2THELONGRUN364
18-3DISINFLATION:THEISSUES367
AFirstPass367·Expectationsand
Credibility:TheLucasCritique371·
NominalRigiditiesandContracts372
18-4THEU.S.DISINFLATION,1979-1985374
*CHAPTER19-INFLATION,INTEREST
RATES,ANDEXCHANGERATES380
19-1MONEYGROWTH,INFLATION,ANI)
INTERESTRATES381
RealandNominalInterestRates381·
TheShortRun381·TheLongRun382
·Dynamics383·EvidenceontheFisher
Hypothesis385
19-2FIXEDEXCHANGERATESAND
DEVALUATIONS389
AggregateDemandUnderFixedExchange
Rates389·AggregateDemandand
AggregateSupply390·What
DevaluationsCanDo393·Whetherand
WhentoDevalue395
PARTSIX-PATHOLOGIES402
*CHAPTER20-PATHOLOGIESI:HIGH
UNEMPLOYMENT402
20-1THEGREATDEPRESSION402
TheFallinSpending404·The
ContractioninNominalMoney405The
AdverseEffectsofDeflation407The
Recovery408
20-2UNEMPLOYMENTINEUP.OPE410
LaborMarketRigidities413·Hysteresis418
20-3CONCI.USIONS423
*CHAPTER21-PATHOLOGIESII:HIGH
INFLNFION427
21-1BUDGETDEFICITSANI)MONEY
CREATION429