第1部分中国经济学界的未解之谜
1问题的起因/00
1.1中国奇迹：经济高速增长30年/00
1.1.1经济实力快速增长/00
1.1.2从农业经济社会向现代工业社会的转型/00
1.1.3对外贸易的“引进来”和“走出去”/00
1.1.4人民生活从温饱到小康/0
1.2中国经济高速增长的成因/0
1.2.1高生育率积蓄了大规模的剩余劳动力/0
1.2.2剩余劳动力优势成功嵌入全球产业链/0
1.2.3经济主力人口的创业创新动力/0
1.32008年经济增速开始下行/0
1.3.1工业生产转入了全面过剩/0
1.3.2消费、投资增速下行和突然放缓/0
1.3.3传统的出口优势逐步趋弱并已消失殆尽/0
2经济下行的“两家争鸣”与质疑/0
2.1经济本不应进入中速增长阶段/0
2.1.1“中速增长常态论”的逻辑推理和政策主张/0
2.1.2对“中速增长常态论”的商榷/0
2.2经济下行不是外因所致/0
2.2.1“增速下行外因论”的逻辑推理和政策主张/0
2.2.2对“增速下行外因论”的商榷/0
第2部分学术争论与历史演变
3人口与发展：理论述评与事实/0
3.1人口与经济关系理论的回顾与评述/0
3.1.1适度人口论与人口控制主张/0
3.1.2《增长的极限》与人口资源悲观论/0
3.1.3市场机制调控家庭生育决策的基本过程/0
3.1.4人口流动与经济增长关系的研究述评/0
3.2人口增长与工业化发展/0
3.2.1人口增长是工业化的必要条件/0
3.2.2人口增长方式转型也是工业化的产物/0
3.3人口流动、城市化及工业化发展/0
3.3.1人口流动加速城市化的进程/0
3.3.2城市化与工业化发展的互动/0
3.4人口、工业化与生态环境的动态协调发展/0
3.4.1人口增长与资源的协调发展/0
3.4.2人口、工业化与环境的协调发展/0
3.4.3人口、工业化与生态环境的动态发展/0
4生育权与迁移权/0
4.1生育权与迁移权的界定/0
4.1.1生育权在个人和国家间的归属之争/0
4.1.2迁移权在个人与国家间不同的安排/0
4.2 生育权的经济学分析/
4.2.1生育权的经济学解释/
4.2.2生育权行使的经济学探讨/
4.3 迁移权的经济学分析/
4.3.1迁移权的经济学解释/
4.3.2迁移权行使的经济学探讨/
5 世界经验：基于不同生育权和迁移权的配置/
5.1 基于不同生育权配置的国际经验/
5.1.1美国不干预的生育及经济发展/
5.1.2日本指导性计划生育与经济的先富后低/
5.1.3韩国指导性计划生育历程/
5.1.4中国台湾地区的指导性计划生育/
5.1.5计划生育政策在印度的流产 /
5.1.6不同生育权配置的国际经验总结/
5.2 基于不同迁移权配置的国际经验/
5.2.1美国的人口迁移自由/
5.2.2日本的人口迁移和住民登记/
5.2.3法国的迁移自由和流动人口管理/
5.2.4俄罗斯人口迁移及其低流动性/
5.2.5印度的人口迁移与贫民窟的形成/
5.2.6不同迁移权配置的国际经验总结/
第3部分中国人口生育管制的经济后果
6 “人口坑”与经济增长的陷阱/
6.1 “人口坑”深浅与经济高增长时间的长短/
6.1.1工业化阶段的“人口坑”与经济增长速度/
6.1.2中国“人口坑”与经济增长速度放慢/
6.2 人口增长变动对经济增长速度的影响/
6.2.1即期影响：人口增长对经济增长的影响/
6.2.2长期影响：人口变动的20年延期影响定理/
7 人口结构失衡和老龄化的经济后果/
7.1 人口结构与经济排浪式变动及增长波动/
7.1.1人口变动与消费、投资和出口变动的数理关系/
7.1.2人口变动引致国民经济排浪式衰退/
7.2 未来经济长期承受的下行和老龄化压力/
7.2.1国民经济未来长期面临的下行压力/
7.2.2未来老龄化加剧的诸多难题/
第4部分中国人口流动管制的经济后果
8 人口进入城市和退出农村的障碍和问题/
8.1 流动人口市民化的进入障碍/
8.1.1中国户籍管理制度变迁与人口流动/
8.1.2社会保障与公共服务的不公平/
8.2进城农民工人口的农村财产退出障碍/
8.2.1农民理性经济人与退出资产障碍和机会成本/
8.2.2出租退出困境与其他退出方式比较/
8.2.3农地制度复杂性与建设征用为国有之弊/
9 城市化流程的扭曲和消费塌陷/
9.1 “青出老回”与漂泊于城市/
9.1.1人口城乡钟摆式和不同地频繁流动/
9.1.2人口从农村到城市的“青出老回”/
9.1.3不返乡的农民工人口在城市中漂泊/
9.1.4大多数国家能够市民化的城市化/
9.2城市消费抑制和农村消费塌陷/
9.2.1流动人口干预制度下的城市消费抑制/
9.2.2“青出老回”流程与农村消费塌陷/
结束语/
参考文献/
PART ONEThe Unsolved Mystery in China’s Economic Community
1Origin of the Problem/ 00
1.1Chinese Miracle: The 30 Years of High Economic Growth Rate/ 00
1.1.1Rapid Growth of Economic Strength/ 00
1.1.2Transition from Agricultural Economy to Modern
Industrial Economy/ 00
1.1.3“Bringing In” and “Going Out” of International Trade/ 00
1.1.4From Subsistence to Moderate Prosperity/ 0
1.2The Reasons of China’s High Economic Growth/ 0
1.2.1High Fertility Rate Saving Huge Surplus Labor/ 0
1.2.2Successfully Integrating Surplus Labor Advantage into
Global Industrial Chain/ 0
1.2.3Entrepreneurship and Innovation by Population as Major
Economic Force/ 0
1.3The Slowdown of Economic Growth Since 2008/ 0
1.3.1Industrial Product Turning into Overall Surplus/ 0
1.3.2Downturn and an Abrupt Slowdown of
Consumption and Investment/ 0
1.3.3Traditional Export Advantage Exhausting Gradually/ 0
2Two Theories of Economic Downturn and Doubts/ 0
2.1The Economy Should Not Enter Intermediate Speed of Growth/ 0
2.1.1The Logic and Policy View of “Medium
Growth as Normal”/ 0
2.1.2Discussion over “Medium Growth as Normal”/ 0
2.2Economic Downturn Is Not Caused by External Factors/ 0
2.2.1The Logic and Policy View of “External Causes of
Economic Downturn”/ 0
2.2.2Discussion over “External Causes of
Economic Downturn”/ 0
Contents
PART TWOAcademic Debate and Historical Evolution
3Population and Development: Theoretical Review and Facts/ 0
3.1The Review and Discussion of the Relationship Theory of
Population and Economy/ 0
3.1.1Moderate Population Theory and Its View of Birth Control/ 0
3.1.2“The Limits to Growth” and Pessimistic View of Population
and Resources/ 0
3.1.3Basic Process of Family Planning under Market Mechanism/ 0
3.1.4Reviews of Literature on Population Mobility
and Economic Growth/ 0
3.2Population Growth and Industrial Development/ 0
3.2.1Population Growth as Necessity of Industrialization/ 0
3.2.2Transition of Population Growth as Outcome
of Industrialization/ 0
3.3Population Flow, Urbanization and Industrial Development/ 0
3.3.1Population Mobility Speeding up Urbanization Process/ 0
3.3.2Interactions between Urbanization and Industrialization/ 0
3.4The Dynamic and Coordinated Development of Population,
Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
3.4.1Harmonious Development between Population
Growth and Resources/ 0
3.4.2Harmonious Development among Population Growth,
Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
3.4.3Dynamic Development among Population Growth,
Industrialization and Ecological Environment/ 0
4Reproductive Right and Migration Right/ 0
4.1The Definition of Reproductive Right and Migration Right/ 0
4.1.1Dispute over ownership of Reproductive Right between Family
and Government/ 0
4.1.2Different Arrangement of Migration Right between Family
and Government/ 0
4.2The Economic Analysis of Birth Rate/
4.2.1Economic Explanation of Reproductive Right/
4.2.2Economic Discussion over Exercise of Reproductive Right/
4.3The Economic Analysis of Migration Right/
4.3.1Economic Explanation of Migration Right/
4.3.2Economic Discussion over Exercise of Migration Right/
5Experience in the World: The Distribution Based on Different
Reproductive Right and Migration Right/
5.1The International Experience Based on Different Reproductive Right/
5.1.1Nonintervention Experience of the United States/
5.1.2Instructive Birth Control in Japan and Its
Economic Up and Down/
5.1.3History of Instructive Birth Control in Korea/
5.1.4Instructive Birth Control in Taiwan/
5.1.5Miscarriage of Birth Control in India/
5.1.6International Experience of Different Arrangement of
Reproductive Right/
5.2The International Experience Based on Different Migration Right/
5.2.1Free Migration of Population in the United States/
5.2.2Reproductive Right and Residential Registration in Japan/
5.2.3Free Migration of Population and Floating Population
Management in France/
5.2.4Migration of Population and Low Mobility in Russia/
5.2.5Migration of Population and Formation of
Slum Problem in India/
5.2.6International Experience of Different Arrangement of Migration
of Population/
PART THREEThe Economic Consequence of China’s Population
Planning System
6“Population Pit” and the Trap of Economic Growth/
6.1The Depth of “Population Pit” and The Time Length of High
Economic Growth/
6.1.1“Population Pit” at Industrialization Stage
and Economic Growth/
6.1.2“Population Pit” and Economic Slowdown in China/
6.2The Influence of the Change of Population Growth on Economic
Growth Rate/
6.2.1Immediate Influence: Population Growth over
Economic Growth/
6.2.2Long-term Influence: Theory of 20-year Delay Effect of
Population Growth/
7The Economic Consequence of Unbalanced and Aging
Population Structure/
7.1Population Structure, Huge Economic Change and the Fluctuation
of Increase/
7.1.1Arithmetical Relationship between Population Structure and
Consumption, Investment and Export Fluctuation/
7.1.2Population Change Leads to National Economic
Downturn as Waves/
7.2The Downward and Aging Pressure on Economy in the Future/
7.2.1Long-term Economic Downward Pressure of
National Economy/
7.2.2Numerous Difficulties from Aggravating Population Aging/
。。。
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