武器装备备件需求预测

第1 章 概述 ·················································································· 1

1.1 基本概念 ··········································································· 1

1.2 备件分类 ··········································································· 3

1.2.1 常见的备件分类方法 ···················································· 3

1.2.2 低消耗备件 ································································ 4

1.2.3 基于模糊隶属度的低消耗备件定义与界定 ························· 4

1.3 备件需求影响因素分析 ······················································· 10

1.3.1 备件需求内在影响因素分析 ········································· 11

1.3.2 备件需求外在影响因素分析 ········································· 12

1.3.3 影响因素的量化及规范化处理 ······································ 16

1.3.4 基于粗糙集属性约简的主要影响因素确定 ······················· 20

1.4 备件需求层次性分析 ·························································· 22

1.4.1 备件层次需求分析 ····················································· 22

1.4.2 装备系统层次需求分析 ··············································· 23

1.4.3 维修保障组织需求分析 ··············································· 23

1.5 备件需求特点分析 ····························································· 23

1.5.1 备件需求特征 ··························································· 23

1.5.2 常消耗备件需求特点 ·················································· 24

1.5.3 低消耗备件需求特点 ·················································· 25

第2 章 武器装备备件需求预测与配置优化基础 ··································· 26

2.1 备件消耗模式分析 ····························································· 26

2.2 备件需求预测的基本原则 ···················································· 27

2.3 备件需求预测的一般程序 ···················································· 29

2.4 备件需求预测的方法 ·························································· 31

2.4.1 定性备件需求预测方法 ··············································· 31

2.4.2 定量备件需求预测方法 ··············································· 32

2.4.3 模型复杂性与模型选择 ··············································· 34

第3 章 武器装备备件品种确定方法 ·················································· 36

3.1 概述 ··············································································· 36

3.2 基于相似分析法的武器装备备件品种确定方法 ·························· 42

3.2.1 相似分析法简介 ························································ 42

3.2.2 实例分析 ································································· 44

3.3 基于模糊层次综合评判的备件品种确定方法 ····························· 46

3.3.1 模糊层次综合评判法简介 ············································ 46

3.3.2 模型建立 ································································· 47

3.3.3 示例分析 ································································· 50

3.4 基于D-S 理论和模糊综合评判的备件品种确定方法 ··················· 52

3.4.1 模型建立 ································································· 52

3.4.2 实现步骤 ································································· 54

3.4.3 示例分析 ································································· 57

3.5 基于灰色评估法的武器装备备件品种确定方法 ·························· 61

3.5.1 评价指标体系的建立 ·················································· 61

3.5.2 评价模型的建立 ························································ 63

3.5.3 示例分析 ································································· 65

第4 章 基于寿命分布和仿真的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ···················· 69

4.1 基于寿命分布的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ····························· 69

4.1.1 模型的假设 ······························································ 70

4.1.2 模型的建立 ······························································ 70

4.1.3 示例分析 ································································· 74

4.2 基于蒙特卡罗仿真的备件需求预测方法 ·································· 77

4.2.1 模型的假设 ······························································ 78

4.2.2 参数确定 ································································· 78

4.2.3 蒙特卡罗方法 ··························································· 79

4.2.4 仿真模型的建立 ························································ 79

4.2.5 实例分析 ································································· 81

4.3 基于马尔可夫与蒙特卡罗仿真的备件需求预测方法 ···················· 82

4.3.1 马尔可夫预测模型 ····················································· 82

4.3.2 备件消耗的马尔可夫性分析 ········································· 84

4.3.3 基于马尔可夫与蒙特卡罗仿真预测模型的建立 ················· 85

4.3.4 实例分析 ································································· 88

4.4 基于Logistic 回归和马尔可夫过程的备件需求 预测仿真模型 ······· 89

4.4.1 模型建立 ································································· 90

4.4.2 需求发生概率预测 ····················································· 91

4.4.3 需求数量预测 ··························································· 93

4.4.4 误差分析 ································································· 96

4.4.5 示例分析 ································································· 97

4.5 考虑设备停机的备件需求预测仿真模型 ································· 100

4.5.1 基于最大熵原理与概率加权矩的备件寿命分布确定 ·········· 101

4.5.2 基于保障度的间断工作备件需求预测模型建立 ················ 106

4.5.3 仿真思路及流程规划 ················································· 109

4.5.4 示例分析 ································································ 111

第5 章 基于时间序列和回归分析的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ············· 115

5.1 时间序列法概述 ······························································· 115

5.2 基于时间序列法的备件需求预测 ·········································· 116

5.2.1 算数平均预测法 ······················································· 116

5.2.2 移动平均预测法 ······················································· 117

5.2.3 指数平滑预测法 ······················································· 118

5.2.4 示例分析 ································································ 122

5.3 基于回归分析的备件需求预测方法 ······································· 126

5.3.1 线性回归概述 ·························································· 126

5.3.2 一元线性回归模型 ···················································· 127

5.3.3 多元线性回归模型 ···················································· 129

5.3.4 示例分析 ································································ 131

第6 章 基于灰色模型的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ···························· 133

6.1 灰色预测方法概述 ···························································· 133

6.1.1 灰色系统简介 ·························································· 133

6.1.2 灰色系统理论基础 ···················································· 134

6.1.3 灰色预测方法 ·························································· 136

6.2 基于一般序列GM(1,1)模型的备件需求预测方法 ······················ 137

6.2.1 模型建立 ································································ 137

6.2.2 示例分析 ································································ 141

6.3 基于含有空缺值序列GM（1,1）模型的备件需求预测方法 ········· 144

6.3.1 模型建立 ································································ 144

6.3.2 示例分析 ································································ 145

6.4 基于加入影响因子改进灰色模型的备件需求预测方法 ················ 146

6.4.1 改进灰色预测模型的建立 ··········································· 146

6.4.2 示例分析 ································································ 147

6.5 基于灰色-马尔可夫模型的备件需求预测方法 ··························· 155

6.5.1 经典灰色-马尔可夫预测模型 ······································· 155

6.5.2 改进的灰色-马尔可夫模型 ·········································· 158

6.5.3 示例分析 ································································ 162

第7 章 基于人工智能的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ···························· 166

7.1 基于BP 神经网络的备件需求预测方法 ·································· 166

7.1.1 BP 神经网络基本原理 ··············································· 167

7.1.2 预测模型的建立 ······················································· 169

7.1.3 示例分析 ································································ 170

7.2 基于支持向量机（SVM）的备件需求预测方法 ························ 175

7.2.1 支持向量机概述 ······················································· 176

7.2.2 支持向量机预测原理 ················································· 177

7.2.3 支持向量机预测模型 ················································· 185

7.2.4 示例分析 ································································ 188

7.3 基于复杂时间序列的组合相关向量机备件需求预测方法 ············· 192

7.3.1 相空间重构 ····························································· 192

7.3.2 小波变换基本理论 ···················································· 193

7.3.3 小波函数的选取 ······················································· 198

7.3.4 基于组合相关向量机的预测原理 ································ 199

7.3.5 示例分析 ································································ 206

第8 章 基于故障分析的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ···························· 213

8.1 故障预测的基本原理分析 ··················································· 213

8.2 基于故障预测的备件需求预测系统构建 ································· 215

8.2.1 工作流程 ································································ 216

8.2.2 数据预处理 ····························································· 216

8.2.3 故障预测 ································································ 219

8.2.4 备件需求确定 ·························································· 220

8.3 基于信息融合和IMUGM(1,1)故障预测的备件需求预测方法 ········ 220

8.3.1 问题描述 ································································ 221

8.3.2 IMUGM(1,1)模型的建立 ············································ 221

8.3.3 基于信息融合和IMUGM(1,1)故障预测的备件需求

预测模型构建 ·························································· 224

8.3.4 示例分析 ································································ 225

8.4 基于信息融合和IMUGM(1,m,w)故障预测的备件需求预测建模 ···· 230

8.4.1 问题描述 ································································ 231

8.4.2 IMUGM(1,m,w)模型的建立 ········································· 231

8.4.3 基于信息融合和IMUGM(1,m,w)故障预测的备件需求

预测模型构建 ·························································· 234

8.4.4 示例分析 ································································ 234

8.5 基于故障规律的备件需求预测方法 ······································· 239

8.5.1 备件需求量计算公式 ················································· 239

8.5.2 示例分析 ································································ 242

第9 章 基于组合模型的武器装备备件需求预测方法 ···························· 244

9.1 组合预测方法概述 ···························································· 244

9.1.1 一般组合预测模型 ···················································· 245

9.1.2 最优加权系数的确定 ················································· 246

9.1.3 模型的检验 ····························································· 247

9.2 基于回归分析和灰色模型的备件需求预测方法 ························· 247

9.2.1 单个预测模型建立 ···················································· 247

9.2.2 最优组合预测模型 ···················································· 248

9.2.3 示例分析 ································································ 248

9.3 基于小波变换的备件需求预测方法 ······································· 251

9.3.1 小波变换理论 ·························································· 251

9.3.2 GM(1,1)-ARMA 模型的改进 ········································ 254

9.3.3 WGM -ARMA 模型的构建 ·········································· 264

9.3.4 示例分析 ································································ 265

9.4 基于改进Theil 不等系数的备件需求预测建模 ·························· 270

9.4.1 单项预测模型的建立 ················································· 271

9.4.2 基于Theil 不等系数的IOWHA 算子的组合预测模型构建 ··· 275

9.4.3 基于Theil 不等系数的IOWHA 算子的组合预测模型改进 ··· 278

9.4.4 示例分析 ································································ 282