问与答篇

9.为什么说投机是股票市场的基石?

零风险炒股实战策略 作者:周佛郎,周云川,孔威


  股票市场是投机的金融市场,投机是股票市场的基石和润滑剂。进入股票市场的公司、投资机构和投资者,都是由于"投机"二字而进入的。进入股票市场的大众必须认真理解这一点,因为今后所论述和引入的新技术分析理论都是建立在"投机"这个基础上的。只要深入理解"投机"的内涵,投资者在股市的风险就会降到最低。本章节着重论述这个观点。

  世界上成功的商业和企业几乎都是上市公司。没有股票市场也就没有今天世界的繁荣。一句话,没有投机就没有股票市场,也就没有今天社会繁荣。全世界的知名企业,更离不开股票市场。

  投机是股票市场和市场经济活动的基石和润滑剂。对于这一提法,可能会有很多不同的观点,正是因为具有不同的观点和看法,这个问题一直是世界上经济学家和政治批评家争论不休的问题。这里引用美国纽约大学教授、著名经济学家威廉J鲍默尔(WILLIAMSJBAUMAL)关于股市"投机"一词的一段论述:

  Dealings in securities are often viewed with hostility and suspicion because they are thought to be an instrument of speculation. When something goes wrong in the market, say, when there is a sudden fall in price, speculators are often blamed. The word speculators is used by editorial writers as a term of strong disapproval, implying that those who engage in the activity are parasites who produce no benefits for society and often do it considerably harm.Economists disagree vehemently with this judgment. They say that speculators perform two vital economic functions:1. Speculators sell protection from risk to other people, much as a fire insurance policy sells protection from risk to a homeowner.2. They help to smooth out price fluctuations by purchasing items when they are abundant (and cheap) and holding them and reselling them when they are scarce (and expensive). I that way, speculators play a vital economic role in helping to alleviate and even shortages.

  Speculators enable farmers or producers of metals and other commodities whose future price is uncertain to get rid of their risk. A farmer who has planted a large crop but who fears its price may fall before harvest time can protect himself by signing a contract for future delivery at an agreed-upon price at which the speculator will purchase the crop when it comes in. In that case, if the price happens to fall, it is the speculator and not the farmer who will suffer the loss. Of course, if the price happens to rise the speculator reap the gain-that is the nature of risk bearing. The speculator who has agreed to buy the crop at the preset price, regardless of market condition at the time the sale take place, has, in effect, sold an insurance policy to the farmer. Surly this is a useful.

  这段英文的大意是:

  在市场上买卖股票的行为常常被认为是不道德的投机行为。一旦市场发生差错,股票价格突然大跌,一些专栏作家和政冶批评家会强烈责怪投机者是不能为社会创造财富反而损害社会的寄生虫。

  经济学家完全不同意这个判断。他们认为,市场投机者在经济活动中起到生生死攸关的二个稳定作用。

  1) 市场投机者稳定了股票价格的波动,当股票价格下降时,投机者买入股票,当股票价格上升时投机者卖出股票。大大降低了市场价格波动的不利影响。

  2) 市场投机者承担了生产制造者的市场风险,正如保险公司承担了置业者的火险一样。

  例如,在期货市场上,投机者能使农产品、金属材料和一些其它商品未来的价格得到稳定。如当一个农民种植了很多玉米,他担心在收获时玉米的价格会下降,他可以签署一份玉米期货销售合同,把价格下降的风险转移到投机者。到玉米收获时,价格下降了,投机者承担了农民的损失。当价格上升了,投机者获到收益。这相当于投机者把一个农产品未来的价格保险卖给这个农民一样。

  经济学家对投机的看法显然是符合经济的运行规律的。其实,这个观点是非常简单、明确和无可置疑的事实。在股票市场上,正是股票的发行者和上市公司把它们未来的生产和经营风险转稼给投机者。投机者给上市公司开了一张保险单。这张投保单的内容是投机者承担了该公司的生产和经营损失。所以,上市公司的生产和经营收益理应归投机者所有。有的人可能会反驳说,您的观点不对,买股票的人不是投机者而是投资者。见人见智,这是您对投机定义错误或对投机理解的差异所致。所有进入股票市场的投资者,都是抱着投机的心理和目的进入股市的,无论是长线、中线和短线投资者,他们在股票市场上都采用低买高抛赚取差价的投机手法,这本身就是一个投机行为,这种赚取差价行为是以承担风险为代价的。


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